
It all boils down to this in the Western Conference of the NBA: There are nine quality teams. There are eight playoff spots.
It may seem a bit premature to break down the playoff race a week before the All-Star Game -- which is considered the unofficial midway point of the season. But the reality is that the 2008-09 campaign has been more than halfway done for a couple of weeks now. Teams have played 50 games each, give or take one or two, out of the scheduled 82. So the homestretch has already begun. Only 31 games remain for the Utah Jazz to try to catch the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers in the Northwest Division standings.
Then again, division standings in the NBA really don't mean a whole lot. It's all about where you are in the conference chase.
The Lakers, barring a complete collapse, will be the conference's top seed. Kobe and Co. lead the second-place San Antonio Spurs by 6 1/2 games.
The Spurs, meanwhile, lead the ninth place Phoenix Suns by just six games.
In other words, the Lakers are clearly the top dogs, with eight teams bunched up behind them. One of those teams will be sitting home during the postseason despite having 47 wins or so.
Here's a brief look at each of the nine contending Western Conference teams in order as of Friday night's games:
L.A. Lakers (40-9)
What's left: 33 games -- 14 at home, 19 on the road
Overview: The Lakers are now paying for having so many home games early in the season. L.A. will play 17 of its next 26 games on the road, including today's big game at Cleveland and Wednesday's lone visit this year to Salt Lake City to play the Jazz.
It won't matter, though. The Lakers have built up a big enough lead that they will coast the rest of the way and won't really be pushed by any other team in the conference. That is, of course, unless Kobe Bryant gets injured for any length of time.
Prediction: 65-17 with the No. 1 seed.
SAN ANTONIO Spurs (33-15)
What's left: 34 games -- 16 at home, 18 on the road
Overview: If it weren't for a 1-4 start to the season when Manu Ginobili was hurt, the Spurs might actually be in a position to challenge the Lakers for the top spot. Making up 6-plus games on a team that loses as rarely as the Lakers, however, makes that task nearly impossible.
San Antonio is currently two games into a stretch of eight consecutive road games that won't conclude until after the All-Star break. After then, however, the schedule looks favorable for the aging former champs. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker will have just three back-to-backs and a majority of their games at home the final two months of the season.
Prediction: 54-28 with the No. 3 seed.
DENVER Nuggets (34-16)
What's left: 32 games -- 15 at home, 17 on the road
Overview: Veteran coach George Karl may be doing his best job ever with this year's Nuggets. Then again, it helps him to have Chauncey Billups running the show as the point guard. Billups has been like a coach on the court for Denver since joining the team early in the year in a trade with Detroit for Allen Iverson.
Denver is in the midst of a five-game road trip prior to the All-Star break, and they'll go on a three-game roadie back East right after the break, too. The Nuggets still have two games each remaining against the Blazers and the Jazz, their competition in the Northwest Division, too.
But Denver doubters are harder to come by now, as Carmelo Anthony, Nene, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith are all playing well this season for the remarkably consistent Nuggets. Don't expect either the Blazers or the Jazz to catch them from behind, and the Spurs have a battle on their hands for second in the conference.
Prediction: 55-27 with the No. 2 seed.
NEW ORLEANS Hornets
(29-18)
What's left: 35 games -- 16 at home, 19 on the road
Overview: This is where the West gets really wild. There is a 3 1/2 game drop-off between the third and fourth spots, but only a 2 1/2 game difference between the fourth and ninth places. That means the Hornets, despite being in fourth this late into the season, are nowhere close to being locks to even make the playoffs.
The Hornets recently lost four straight games, including three at home, and star point guard Chris Paul has missed time with a mild groin sprain. Paul isn't expected to be sidelined much longer, but if he re-aggravates the injury and is out for any extended period of time, it could spell doom for the Hornets.
Byron Scott's team hasn't been able to sneak up on opponents this season like last year, and having center Tyson Chandler out with an ankle injury for the past eight games hasn't helped either. This is a team that could go either way in the final weeks of the season -- earn homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs or fall out completely.
Prediction: 46-36 with the No. 8 seed
PORTLAND Trail Blazers (30-19)
What's left: 33 games -- 18 at home, 15 on the road
Overview: The Trail Blazers opened the season with a brutal schedule, playing 15 of their first 22 games on the road, and they were able to stay afloat. Their schedule has evened out a bit, but they still may be able to make some noise down the stretch since they have a slight majority of their games at home.
In fact, the Blazers could put some heat on the Nuggets in the Northwest since they will play 11 of their next 16 games in the comfort of the Rose Garden.
Portland faded after the All-Star break and missed the playoffs last year despite going 41-41. This time, with another year under their belts, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge won't let that happen. Expect the Blazers to return to the postseason for the first time since 2003.
Prediction: 52- 30 with the fourth seed
HOUSTON Rockets (30-20)
What's left: 32 games -- 18 at home, 14 away games
Overview: The Rockets, as usual, have had health issues. Tracy McGrady, for instance, has missed 17 games, Shane Battier has missed 23 and Ron Artest has missed 13.
The good news for the Rockets is that Yao Ming has been relatively healthy, having missed just three games thus far, and McGrady is back in the lineup. The better news is that despite the injuries, the Rockets stayed right in the middle of the playoff hunt.
Assuming McGrady can remain healthy -- and that's a big assumption -- Houston looks like it will finish right about where it has the past few seasons.
That will leave the big question, once again, about whether or not a team McGrady is playing on can finally get past the first round of the playoffs.
Prediction: 48-34 with the sixth seed
DALLAS Mavericks (29-20)
What's left: 33 games -- 19 at home, 14 on the road
Overview: The Mavs made a bold move right before the trade deadline last season, acquiring veteran point guard Jason Kidd while giving up Devin Harris in the process. It didn't really work out as planned, as the Mavs still lost to the Hornets in the first round of the playoffs.
Kidd has been solid for Dallas, but Harris has been even better for the Nets and is now an All-Star in the Eastern Conference.
Yet, Kidd still has some game left in him, and with Dirk Nowtizki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard (if he doesn't get traded) there to help, the Mavs still figure to be in the thick of the playoff chase to the end.
The other thing Dallas has going for it is the most favorable schedule of any of the contending Western teams, at least in terms of home vs. road games. That should be enough to ensure Dallas is back in the postseason.
Prediction: 49-33 with the No. 5 seed
UTAH Jazz (29-22)
What's left: 31 games -- 15 at home, 16 on the road
Overview: It's a tribute to Jazz coach Jerry Sloan that Utah even has this good of a record considering the injury bug that has infected virtually the entire team.
Both Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko, the team's two highest paid players, are still out while recovering from in-season surgeries. But both are expected to be back shortly after the All-Star break.
Then again, it will take some time for the team to mesh once Boozer and Kirilenko return. The goal should be to stay in the postseason chase and then try to put things together in order to peak at playoff time. Chances are, however, that the playoffs won't last very long since the Jazz could be forced to play either the Lakers or the Spurs in the first round.
Prediction: 47-35 with the No. 7 seed
PHOENIX Suns (27-21)
What's left: 34 games -- 17 at home, 17 on the road
Overview: General manager Steve Kerr gambled by picking up Shaquille O'Neal at the trade deadline a year ago. While O'Neal has played well -- at an All-Star level, even -- it changed the whole complexion of the team.
Terry Porter was brought in as the coach to instill a defensive attitude, but it hasn't worked. Now the Suns are just as bad on defense as they were under Mike D'Antoni, but aren't as good offensively.
The Suns are entertaining trade talks and could try another big transaction to try to save the season. Word on the street is that even Amare Stoudemire and O'Neal are on the block if the right deal presents itself.
It may be too late. The Suns appear to be setting. Expect them to be the 40-plus win team not to make the postseason.
Prediction: 45-37 and out of the playoffs Postseason predictions
Here's how the first-round Western Conference playoff matchups may wind up:
No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 8 Hornets
No. 2 Nuggets vs. No. 7 Jazz
No. 3 Spurs vs. No. 6 Rockets
No. 4 Blazers vs. No. 5 Mavericks
*No. 9 Suns left out E-mail: lojo@desnews.com